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20140901 11:36 Pappy Well, yes. Compton, Newark, Detroit, South Central LA.

Thing is, the bigger places will still survive in some form (like Detroit;) the small ones end up eventually disappearing.
20140901 08:25 Dale Pappy same thing happened after the riot days of the past. They destroy their own "Hood" as they call it. Even their own are attacked if they have anything. Spread the wealth. Brother stuff out the window. The youth however are the most active ones to watch. This is a green light for all sorts of mischief.
20140901 03:05 badanov Wargaming a mixed Iraqi battlegroup versus a Middle Eastern nascent mobocracy.

Here.
20140831 20:52 Pappy Embassy staff were evacuated over a month ago.

Optics are still bad, tho.
20140831 20:00 Pappy Economics, she is a harsh mistress.

QuikTrip Has No Plans To Rebuild in Ferguson
20140831 19:45 Bright Pebbles https://twitter.com/Daudoo/status/506089856380846080/photo/1

PIC: Libyan islamists stormed the #US embassy in #Tripoli, #Libya, Staff said to have been evacuated. Media reports.
20140831 19:36 badanov Some Sunday evening Hal Ketchum:

20140831 07:52 badanov This was four quarters of lights out football with a team, Oklahoma State, that lost 33 seniors last year. No one and I mean everyone expected a rout, but instead we saw inspired defensive football.

Go Pokes!
20140830 19:11 Thing From Snowy Mountain Damn I'm tired. Gotta leave the workplace (and innernets). Maybe see y'all t'morrow.
20140830 14:43 badanov Ship: Doomsday
20140830 13:43 Shipman BadMan, OS, how long can they go?
20140830 13:16 badanov If I didn't know better, I'd call it the old Wehmacht Kampfgruppe operational concept, at least at the command level for independent operating brigades/regiments.

Agreed.

I'd add that the Russian command system doesn't rely very much on NCOs, which is a weakness. Still very top down.

They way they are operating, piecemeal alongside Spetnatz/GRU "insurgents" in smaller packets, Im not sure that divisional structures gain them anything, especially since they current battles don't appear to requite the heavier DivArty stuff. Organic regimental seems to be adequate, and cheaper to support.

Organizing into brigades give the Rooshuns a better, more experienced and larger command staff, plus brigades are required to maneuver and provide their own supply. Regiments rely on divisions for logistics, while the brigade has a large enough tail; it is as'posed to be self sustaining.

The way the Rooshuns organize their brigades they have almost as much artillery support as a division anyway.

The Russian division is still a large enough group that they need it in taking and holding objectives especially in a mobile combat environment. The Russians need the frontage the division provides.

The way I see it: Russian think regiments only need to maneuver and fight, but brigades are required and are organized to maneuver, fight and survive contact with the enemy.

A regiment is just another group of cannon fodder for their commanders.
20140830 12:45 OldSpook Bad, that seems accurate based on the troop movements I was seeing a while back - pulling battalions at a time: that's what was on those railcar groupings. And the N-S "major units" I was hearing about were apparently mostly special units, other than the 106th. There's the incomplete info of open source G-2 coming back to bite me (saw photos of armored units moving from N, heard about other units moving from Moscow command, and Western MD, in absence of info about Abn and Special troops, assumed all were standard. Mea culpa). But at least I got the command size right (Battalions and brigades, not divisions, at least for the standard ground forces)

If I didn't know better, I'd call it the old Wehmacht Kampfgruppe operational concept, at least at the command level for independent operating brigades/regiments.

They way they are operating, piecemeal alongside Spetnatz/GRU "insurgents" in smaller packets, Im not sure that divisional structures gain them anything, especially since they current battles don't appear to requite the heavier DivArty stuff. Organic regimental seems to be adequate, and cheaper to support.

I don't know that they have done the cross-attach and functional command independence of US Army Task Force (BN-ish) at this time. If they have then they have advanced their operational art a great deal in the past decade. I'd be surprised to see operation Team (combined arms company sized elements) units like the US Army typically uses in fighting insurgents.
20140830 12:37 OldSpook ERMAHGERD



They will have mop crews standing by.
20140830 11:03 Thing From Snowy Mountain I don't think Putin is as smart as everyone thinks he is; he was just lucky enough to inherit from his way smarter predecessors the ultimate sleeper agent.
20140830 08:57 Dale I spoke to a couple of interesting fellows. Seems ABL ammunition will be moved to Finland. Highly profitable but EPA is destroying the operation here. In a time frame I am unaware of would represent cumulatively 100 billion dollars going out of the country. One proprietary rocket fuel catalyst has a 500 year degration (half life ? unknown)life. Yes, and handled poorly.
20140830 02:13 badanov Russian order of battle: Looks like a lot of independent brigades, airborne divisions and others.

Now, either those are the several independent brigades, or Putin has been deploying regiments as brigades without mobilizing his divisions.

If this is mobilization of ground troops, it is very much on the cheap.

Putin doesn't to spend all them hard earned petro rubles on his army, when he has 20 naval surface combatants (frigate or heavier) coming online this year.
20140830 01:37 Skidmark Courtesy of Br. Rabbit.
20140830 01:35 Skidmark
20140829 22:41 badanov Some Friday night INXS:

20140829 22:41 Pappy Perhaps Putin didn't leave Moscow unprotected. Perhaps it just wasn't protected in a conventional way.
20140829 22:28 badanov I have heard since about 2004 that the only ready units in the Russian Army were the airborne divisions, and that the only active military district was the Transcaucusus Front. Its HQ was housed in Moscow with STAVKA.

So, I got the distinct impression after seeing the rabble that Russia fielded against Georgia that Putin was neglecting his army and was doing his conquests on the cheap, not constituting his maneuver units and relying on GHQ units such as those attached to armies and fronts (MDs).

So it could be that he may have his MD HQs at full strength with all the attendant HQ units and air assault units, and leaving most of his maneuver units in category 2 state.

It shows in some way if he did transfer ready units away from his capital it had to have been done against the advice of his MoD. IOW he failed to learn the lesson that Stalin was taught in October, 1941: you have to protect your capital and start mobilizing the whole of your army.

Of course conditions for Russia now aren't as dire as then, but if Putin is anything like Obama then he is every bit the blundering fool that Obama is; he is just protecting, or advancing Russia's interests, something Barky never heard of.
20140829 21:02 OldSpook Perhaps I should have used the term "mustered" rather than "mobilized". These re all pretty much ready units, pulled from other MDs, so they don't have to pull up the reserve Cat A & B, which would be disruptive, and pretty ineffective without a lot of training and wear*tear on their gear.

All in all, the President just stopped paying attention, as did our press, and the nation as well.

Putin read things well, and waited until he knew Obama had no effective counter, and the Euros had already boxed themselves out.

I regret I wasn't clear about the threat level I had seen and heard - I just heard and saw a bit of evidence of front line units being moved toward the Ukraine border an Rostov (Southern) MD. I assumed since they were first line units, they action would have been sooner.

Given their position at the time, the N-S strike made sense. But given the time passed, the current "ooze" deployment (versus an overt blitzkrieg) may actually be the least costly in political terms, especially the ambiguity that can be instilled versus an outright flags flying Red Army Mech Assault.

All in all, its a good learning point for Intel folks - and shows the need for firm policy and support for allies early on, while its still workable. The typical American "wait till shit breaks then go all in" strategy of the big wars isn't workable anymore.
20140829 20:11 badanov I saw the posts. I admit I didn't read them too closely. I thought you were just speculating. Didn't realize we were watching the Rooshuns mobilize their armed forces.
20140829 19:19 OldSpook I think the fact they were moved in from Western MD (Kursk, Novgorod) and Moscow area assets may have avoided the telltale signs of large scale mobilizations. Transfers are generally not as disruptive, and can be masked with "annual training" -- the "training exercise" mobilization was a common kickoff scenario back in the day in NATO.

Kinda hard to G-2 things from open sources, especially when US coverage is so damnably myopic and intentionally blind much of the time. Times like these makes me miss my brief, and the SCI version of the Early Bird.
20140829 19:13 badanov Then that's about 300,000 men under arms, if the mobilized the whole district.

Presumably a fair number of units are category two so some time will be needed to integrate them unto the Red Army's plans.
20140829 19:10 OldSpook Bad, the mobilization signs were there a while back. I posted BMP, 2S1, etc, pics of entrained unit movement into Rotov Oblast (Southern MD) from the Western Military District here in the OClub. And I note they were never moved back. That's why my original strategy had them striking on a N to S line - I thought they were going to use their best forces that had been mobilized, which were in the Western MD and were being moved south. I guess I didn't realize just how far south they were sent. The Rostov forces I was thinking would be used to move along the coast to link up with the Crimea and seal off the sea north coast.

Likely there needed a training rotation for full effective mobilization. That may have been what took them so long, as well as politically gauging things - for the US to be distracted, Obama showing even more weakness, and the Euros being completely feckless (as usual).
20140829 19:05 OldSpook The strategy should be a degüello

ISIS called the tune, time for them to pay the piper.
20140829 16:38 BrerRabbit Obama's Iraq/Syria strategy

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140829_isis1.jpg

I would have pasted the image if I was smart...
20140829 16:36 BrerRabbit src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140829_isis1.jpg"
20140829 09:39 badanov HFS

The news doesn't get any better as time goes on, does it?
20140829 08:29 Pappy Um, bad - the way intel's been going , the Russians could've mobilized three divisions and it would've been missed.
20140829 07:42 Dale Well it's that time of year. Time for the Cod liver oil. I prefer Olive oil myself.
So many upper respiratory issues already.
20140829 07:12 Bright Pebbles Did we miss this one?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2735176/Former-HHS-cyber-security-chief-convicted-.html

Former HHS cyber security chief convicted in CH1LD P0RN case
20140829 07:02 Bright Pebbles http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/aug/29/why-is-the-united-arab-emirates-secretly-bombing-libya-video

Picture on front looks like Israeli F16 (big fuel tanks).
20140829 01:35 badanov My problem with US protestations of direct Russian involvement is that Russia has yet to mobilize its military. We would have seen indications of full scale mobilization a month or two before any invasion.
20140829 00:43 SteveS OK, so we don't have a strategy for dealing with ISIS. Howzabout we just go over there, kill a bunch of them and leave. It would be like a long road trip back in college. I'm betting the Marines would love it - lots of shooting, no nation building.
20140829 00:08 Pappy Heh. Reminds me - seen on Ed Driscoll's site:

“Tear down this wall” – Ronald Reagan

“We don’t have a strategy” – Barack Obama

Legacy is such a fickle bitch.


and Instapundit:

Reagan:”Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: we win, they lose.”

Obama:”We don’t have a strategy yet”

Hope is not a strategy.
20140829 00:04 Skidmark Karma's a bitch
20140829 00:02 Pappy S'okay, took me about fifteen tries and revamps to get all mine in.
20140829 00:01 Skidmark Whew! Tough getting that posted.
20140829 00:01 Skidmark You are the only one that can turn off the light of instinct or reason and pull the switch.
20140829 00:00 Skidmark Tactics familarity practice is a review of someone else's defense or assault strategy.
20140829 00:00 Skidmark tunnel vision, hyper-awareness or the flight syndrome in practice.
20140829 00:00 Skidmark You don't get the shakes,
20140828 23:57 Skidmark Targets don't move.
20140828 23:57 Skidmark It's not in the aiming.
20140828 23:56 Skidmark Glenmore's right.
20140828 23:21 Pappy "Are American police actually any good at aiming guns???"

BP, allow me to present my viewpoint.

Enlisted sailor, three years in a special unit that guarded special weapons. Then spent a couple of years as an officer doing the same thing at a different level. Daily training, daily drills at all times and conditions, regular amounts of range time. Familiar with Rule of Engagement (ROE) and when you could use your weapon otherwise.

Unless you drill constantly, get deliberately placed in drill scenarios where the environment and threat varies and the stress levels are high and it eventually becomes second nature* from constant exposure, then you're going to see stuff like what happened to the TV crewman.

It costs money to vet candidates, train them to a high level, and keep on training and evaluating. Say a half-million to three quarters of a million dollars apiece to start. And because they're expensive they aren't going to be worked like your average kind of sailor.

And considering most police department budgets, the average cop isn't going to be trained to a high level either. And if they are, they aren't any good as a street cop.
20140828 21:11 Dale Bad is good :).
20140828 20:48 Glenmore "Are American police actually any good at aiming guns???"
Some, BP, but a lot certainly are not. In their defense, even with plenty of range time (which they don't get), actually shooting at a living thing - let alone a person - is just flat-out hard the first time, and for 90+% of these cops, it is the first time.
20140828 20:42 OldSpook Obama doesn't have a strategy for anything other than strong-arming his opposition Chicago style, and trying to dictate law via illegal executive orders. Domestic only - he apparently doesn't give a crap overseas.
20140828 20:34 49 Pan So Obama said he does not have a strategy when it comes to ISIS in Syria. The press is seething. Why would he say something so foolish. He had to know the press would go haywire... He had to have said it on purpose, the real question is in just what is he doing that needed such an obvious distraction??
20140828 17:27 trailing wife Then we all owe you thanks, dear Bright Pebbles.
20140828 17:01 Bright Pebbles I've deleted about 50 spams in the o club today.
20140828 17:00 trailing wife I have no idea why this post keeps disappearing. Most annoying.

In brief, love the spam poem, some police can shoot straight.
20140828 16:55 badanov I have got to rent this film...

20140828 10:02 Bright Pebbles Are American police actually any good at aiming guns???


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/tv-crew-member-shot-dead-4120148
20140828 08:46 Bright Pebbles Spam for the block
we used to have a little
, now we have a lot.

/Jenny
20140827 23:19 badanov I bet UCLA fans are giddy over the Josh Shaw story.
20140827 23:11 badanov Cap'n Phillips is in my Netflix DVD queue.
20140827 22:57 Pappy Steve, back then merchant ships didn't carry armed teams. Partly due to legal vagaries, partly due to possible maritime liability issues, much of it due to political spinelessness.

Well, it eventually changed, and piracy has declined in that region. Who would have guessed?
20140827 21:55 badanov Update on the massive road march of Romainian Army units video: They were there for the Ukrainian Independence Day parade.
20140827 21:21 SteveS Watched "Captain Phillips" last nite. Not a bad flick. Although, if the ship had a man with a scoped rifle on the fantail, the film would have been about 100 minutes shorter. When the pirates were rampaging thru the ship, I kept thinking, "don't any of you have a gun?"
20140827 21:08 OldSpook Is a battalion of the 173rd still in/near Riga?

Deac: SPLITTERS!
20140827 20:32 OldSpook Hello America. Welcome to the world Obama and the Progressives have made.

A little bit of hump day blues...

20140827 18:55 trailing wife Thanks loads, Grunter. Teamwork works. ;-)
20140827 16:51 Bright Pebbles http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2735020/Lockdown-Cardiff-City-turned-high-security-prison-10-miles-fencing-dubbed-ring-steel-ahead-Nato-conference-week.html
20140827 11:24 Grunter OK, TW, I just put it up. It is via Kitco-dot-com
20140827 10:27 trailing wife Grunter, as far as i can tell, after that Las Vegas company was reprimanded by the judge, the problem went away. We still prefer not to use AyPee as a primary source, but as an additional with the searchable article from elsewhere, its not a problem. I've got a Times of Israel article on the fall of the Quneitra (sp?) crossing, but it isn't all that good, so I would definitely appreciate your link.
20140827 09:49 Grunter Not sure if I should link this Aypee story
"Syrian rebels seize border crossing with Israel"
20140827 00:04 Pappy Pretty much. The People's House (or President's House, depending on the historian) is built of sandstone. Supposedly it got painted white to cover the scorch marks after the rebuilding, though there's evidence the building was originally whitewashed after construction.