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20140830 02:13 badanov Russian order of battle: Looks like a lot of independent brigades, airborne divisions and others.

Now, either those are the several independent brigades, or Putin has been deploying regiments as brigades without mobilizing his divisions.

If this is mobilization of ground troops, it is very much on the cheap.

Putin doesn't to spend all them hard earned petro rubles on his army, when he has 20 naval surface combatants (frigate or heavier) coming online this year.
20140830 01:37 Skidmark Courtesy of Br. Rabbit.
20140830 01:35 Skidmark
20140829 22:41 badanov Some Friday night INXS:

20140829 22:41 Pappy Perhaps Putin didn't leave Moscow unprotected. Perhaps it just wasn't protected in a conventional way.
20140829 22:28 badanov I have heard since about 2004 that the only ready units in the Russian Army were the airborne divisions, and that the only active military district was the Transcaucusus Front. Its HQ was housed in Moscow with STAVKA.

So, I got the distinct impression after seeing the rabble that Russia fielded against Georgia that Putin was neglecting his army and was doing his conquests on the cheap, not constituting his maneuver units and relying on GHQ units such as those attached to armies and fronts (MDs).

So it could be that he may have his MD HQs at full strength with all the attendant HQ units and air assault units, and leaving most of his maneuver units in category 2 state.

It shows in some way if he did transfer ready units away from his capital it had to have been done against the advice of his MoD. IOW he failed to learn the lesson that Stalin was taught in October, 1941: you have to protect your capital and start mobilizing the whole of your army.

Of course conditions for Russia now aren't as dire as then, but if Putin is anything like Obama then he is every bit the blundering fool that Obama is; he is just protecting, or advancing Russia's interests, something Barky never heard of.
20140829 21:02 OldSpook Perhaps I should have used the term "mustered" rather than "mobilized". These re all pretty much ready units, pulled from other MDs, so they don't have to pull up the reserve Cat A & B, which would be disruptive, and pretty ineffective without a lot of training and wear*tear on their gear.

All in all, the President just stopped paying attention, as did our press, and the nation as well.

Putin read things well, and waited until he knew Obama had no effective counter, and the Euros had already boxed themselves out.

I regret I wasn't clear about the threat level I had seen and heard - I just heard and saw a bit of evidence of front line units being moved toward the Ukraine border an Rostov (Southern) MD. I assumed since they were first line units, they action would have been sooner.

Given their position at the time, the N-S strike made sense. But given the time passed, the current "ooze" deployment (versus an overt blitzkrieg) may actually be the least costly in political terms, especially the ambiguity that can be instilled versus an outright flags flying Red Army Mech Assault.

All in all, its a good learning point for Intel folks - and shows the need for firm policy and support for allies early on, while its still workable. The typical American "wait till shit breaks then go all in" strategy of the big wars isn't workable anymore.
20140829 20:11 badanov I saw the posts. I admit I didn't read them too closely. I thought you were just speculating. Didn't realize we were watching the Rooshuns mobilize their armed forces.
20140829 19:19 OldSpook I think the fact they were moved in from Western MD (Kursk, Novgorod) and Moscow area assets may have avoided the telltale signs of large scale mobilizations. Transfers are generally not as disruptive, and can be masked with "annual training" -- the "training exercise" mobilization was a common kickoff scenario back in the day in NATO.

Kinda hard to G-2 things from open sources, especially when US coverage is so damnably myopic and intentionally blind much of the time. Times like these makes me miss my brief, and the SCI version of the Early Bird.
20140829 19:13 badanov Then that's about 300,000 men under arms, if the mobilized the whole district.

Presumably a fair number of units are category two so some time will be needed to integrate them unto the Red Army's plans.
20140829 19:10 OldSpook Bad, the mobilization signs were there a while back. I posted BMP, 2S1, etc, pics of entrained unit movement into Rotov Oblast (Southern MD) from the Western Military District here in the OClub. And I note they were never moved back. That's why my original strategy had them striking on a N to S line - I thought they were going to use their best forces that had been mobilized, which were in the Western MD and were being moved south. I guess I didn't realize just how far south they were sent. The Rostov forces I was thinking would be used to move along the coast to link up with the Crimea and seal off the sea north coast.

Likely there needed a training rotation for full effective mobilization. That may have been what took them so long, as well as politically gauging things - for the US to be distracted, Obama showing even more weakness, and the Euros being completely feckless (as usual).
20140829 19:05 OldSpook The strategy should be a degüello

ISIS called the tune, time for them to pay the piper.
20140829 16:38 BrerRabbit Obama's Iraq/Syria strategy

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140829_isis1.jpg

I would have pasted the image if I was smart...
20140829 16:36 BrerRabbit src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140829_isis1.jpg"
20140829 09:39 badanov HFS

The news doesn't get any better as time goes on, does it?
20140829 08:29 Pappy Um, bad - the way intel's been going , the Russians could've mobilized three divisions and it would've been missed.
20140829 07:42 Dale Well it's that time of year. Time for the Cod liver oil. I prefer Olive oil myself.
So many upper respiratory issues already.
20140829 07:12 Bright Pebbles Did we miss this one?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2735176/Former-HHS-cyber-security-chief-convicted-.html

Former HHS cyber security chief convicted in CH1LD P0RN case
20140829 07:02 Bright Pebbles http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/aug/29/why-is-the-united-arab-emirates-secretly-bombing-libya-video

Picture on front looks like Israeli F16 (big fuel tanks).
20140829 01:35 badanov My problem with US protestations of direct Russian involvement is that Russia has yet to mobilize its military. We would have seen indications of full scale mobilization a month or two before any invasion.
20140829 00:43 SteveS OK, so we don't have a strategy for dealing with ISIS. Howzabout we just go over there, kill a bunch of them and leave. It would be like a long road trip back in college. I'm betting the Marines would love it - lots of shooting, no nation building.
20140829 00:08 Pappy Heh. Reminds me - seen on Ed Driscoll's site:

“Tear down this wall” – Ronald Reagan

“We don’t have a strategy” – Barack Obama

Legacy is such a fickle bitch.


and Instapundit:

Reagan:”Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: we win, they lose.”

Obama:”We don’t have a strategy yet”

Hope is not a strategy.
20140829 00:04 Skidmark Karma's a bitch
20140829 00:02 Pappy S'okay, took me about fifteen tries and revamps to get all mine in.
20140829 00:01 Skidmark Whew! Tough getting that posted.
20140829 00:01 Skidmark You are the only one that can turn off the light of instinct or reason and pull the switch.
20140829 00:00 Skidmark Tactics familarity practice is a review of someone else's defense or assault strategy.
20140829 00:00 Skidmark tunnel vision, hyper-awareness or the flight syndrome in practice.
20140829 00:00 Skidmark You don't get the shakes,
20140828 23:57 Skidmark Targets don't move.
20140828 23:57 Skidmark It's not in the aiming.
20140828 23:56 Skidmark Glenmore's right.
20140828 23:21 Pappy "Are American police actually any good at aiming guns???"

BP, allow me to present my viewpoint.

Enlisted sailor, three years in a special unit that guarded special weapons. Then spent a couple of years as an officer doing the same thing at a different level. Daily training, daily drills at all times and conditions, regular amounts of range time. Familiar with Rule of Engagement (ROE) and when you could use your weapon otherwise.

Unless you drill constantly, get deliberately placed in drill scenarios where the environment and threat varies and the stress levels are high and it eventually becomes second nature* from constant exposure, then you're going to see stuff like what happened to the TV crewman.

It costs money to vet candidates, train them to a high level, and keep on training and evaluating. Say a half-million to three quarters of a million dollars apiece to start. And because they're expensive they aren't going to be worked like your average kind of sailor.

And considering most police department budgets, the average cop isn't going to be trained to a high level either. And if they are, they aren't any good as a street cop.
20140828 21:11 Dale Bad is good :).
20140828 20:48 Glenmore "Are American police actually any good at aiming guns???"
Some, BP, but a lot certainly are not. In their defense, even with plenty of range time (which they don't get), actually shooting at a living thing - let alone a person - is just flat-out hard the first time, and for 90+% of these cops, it is the first time.
20140828 20:42 OldSpook Obama doesn't have a strategy for anything other than strong-arming his opposition Chicago style, and trying to dictate law via illegal executive orders. Domestic only - he apparently doesn't give a crap overseas.
20140828 20:34 49 Pan So Obama said he does not have a strategy when it comes to ISIS in Syria. The press is seething. Why would he say something so foolish. He had to know the press would go haywire... He had to have said it on purpose, the real question is in just what is he doing that needed such an obvious distraction??
20140828 17:27 trailing wife Then we all owe you thanks, dear Bright Pebbles.
20140828 17:01 Bright Pebbles I've deleted about 50 spams in the o club today.
20140828 17:00 trailing wife I have no idea why this post keeps disappearing. Most annoying.

In brief, love the spam poem, some police can shoot straight.
20140828 16:55 badanov I have got to rent this film...

20140828 10:02 Bright Pebbles Are American police actually any good at aiming guns???


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/tv-crew-member-shot-dead-4120148
20140828 08:46 Bright Pebbles Spam for the block
we used to have a little
, now we have a lot.

/Jenny
20140827 23:19 badanov I bet UCLA fans are giddy over the Josh Shaw story.
20140827 23:11 badanov Cap'n Phillips is in my Netflix DVD queue.
20140827 22:57 Pappy Steve, back then merchant ships didn't carry armed teams. Partly due to legal vagaries, partly due to possible maritime liability issues, much of it due to political spinelessness.

Well, it eventually changed, and piracy has declined in that region. Who would have guessed?
20140827 21:55 badanov Update on the massive road march of Romainian Army units video: They were there for the Ukrainian Independence Day parade.
20140827 21:21 SteveS Watched "Captain Phillips" last nite. Not a bad flick. Although, if the ship had a man with a scoped rifle on the fantail, the film would have been about 100 minutes shorter. When the pirates were rampaging thru the ship, I kept thinking, "don't any of you have a gun?"
20140827 21:08 OldSpook Is a battalion of the 173rd still in/near Riga?

Deac: SPLITTERS!
20140827 20:32 OldSpook Hello America. Welcome to the world Obama and the Progressives have made.

A little bit of hump day blues...

20140827 18:55 trailing wife Thanks loads, Grunter. Teamwork works. ;-)
20140827 16:51 Bright Pebbles http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2735020/Lockdown-Cardiff-City-turned-high-security-prison-10-miles-fencing-dubbed-ring-steel-ahead-Nato-conference-week.html
20140827 11:24 Grunter OK, TW, I just put it up. It is via Kitco-dot-com
20140827 10:27 trailing wife Grunter, as far as i can tell, after that Las Vegas company was reprimanded by the judge, the problem went away. We still prefer not to use AyPee as a primary source, but as an additional with the searchable article from elsewhere, its not a problem. I've got a Times of Israel article on the fall of the Quneitra (sp?) crossing, but it isn't all that good, so I would definitely appreciate your link.
20140827 09:49 Grunter Not sure if I should link this Aypee story
"Syrian rebels seize border crossing with Israel"
20140827 00:04 Pappy Pretty much. The People's House (or President's House, depending on the historian) is built of sandstone. Supposedly it got painted white to cover the scorch marks after the rebuilding, though there's evidence the building was originally whitewashed after construction.
20140826 23:38 badanov Well, it wasn't by the time the British were done with it. Charcoal black, I s'pect.
20140826 23:34 badanov Boyo boy, I wish the Ukrainian press center would release their version of events earlier.
20140826 21:23 Pappy Considering the current occupant, celebrating the burning of the White House* might not have been a bad idea.


* Of course it wasn't white back then...
20140826 21:00 badanov HFS!
20140826 20:37 Bright Pebbles

OUCH!
20140826 20:24 49 Pan So some idiot at the British embassy decided it was a good idea to celebrate the 200th anniversary of the burning of the white house by British troops. The air inside the beltway must lower IQ's by 50% and raise narcissism by an equal percentage. No counting for stupid...
20140826 20:19 3dc ISIS Captures Major Syrian Air Base has a bad link
20140826 19:32 badanov Pro Russian militia insist they too are fighting near Mariupol.
20140826 10:40 Bright Pebbles http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2328341/ukip.html
20140826 09:48 Bright Pebbles http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-28939089

At least 1,400 chíldrén were subjected to "appálling" séxúál explóitation in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013, a report has found.

BY MUSLIM GANGS.
The article doesn't say.
20140826 08:12 Deacon Blues OS, you sound like Monty Python in The Life of Brian.
20140826 00:13 Skidmark Purple Folk Like Peaches
20140825 20:47 OldSpook PFLP? Peoples Front for the Liberation of Palestine? A opposed to ... Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine?

People's Liberation Front for Palestine (PLFP)? Palestinian Peoples Liberation Front (PPLF) or the Liberation Front for the People of Palestine (LFPP)?
20140825 19:52 3dc PFLP-GC leader Ahmed Jibril was killed in an IED attack in Syria carried out by the Nusra Front (from tues's live blog)
20140825 17:59 Bright Pebbles
20140825 12:33 Bright Pebbles http://www.thomaswictor.com/guest-post-fake-gaza-sniper-video/

Fake Pallywood “sniper” video debunked here:
20140825 08:30 Skidmark Cool boat
20140825 06:08 Bright Pebbles Think there should be a turing test image to post here. Tons of spam now.
20140825 05:33 Bright Pebbles http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/woman-hit-pellet-gun-central-park-cops-article-1.1914614

Racist hate crime, get Holder on the case...