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20140919 21:42 badanov OS: If Putin makes his move to "annex" Ukraina, he will probably do it in December.

I think it will be a multi axis operation beginning with light infantry company heliborne or paraborne air assault in several crossings of the Dnepr starting with the Dnepr estuary going north to and ending at Zaparozhe. Crossings at Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and Zaparozhe. Immediately coming up from the Crimea will be at least two airborne divisions, possibly on a straight up road march from Sevastopol.

Then from the east, Putin will "cancel" the Novorossiya drive for independence, "convincing" them that Russian federation is better for them than that nasty, messy independence thing, then move his maneuver divisions west. He doesn't need a contiguous line running across the north, because they are all Russian speaking and generally sympathetic, or maybe just quiet.

I say December because by then the humanitarian crisis in Novorossiya will begin to hit hard, and Putin's "concern" for his Russian speaking tovarishchi will take over his better judgement.

Plus the ground will be hard enough to support his tanks. And he'll still send in his second string. We won't see his front line troops, similar to what he did in South Ossetia.

By then, also most of Ukraina's second and third echelon forces will be immolated by the militias, and all that will be left will be the regular Ukrainian Army, in fortifications behind the Dnepr, being built as we speak. IOW, Ukrainian expect Putin to do this thing.

Despite all his bluster, it will still take the Russian Army two months to move up to the Dnepr River line, even unopposed. By then they will have outrun their supply and will be forced to stop. But they will make the river line.

A foraging army could be an unpopular army.

What happens in the spring: plebiscites and appeals to Bratsi Russkaya, and the final tally. Putin wins.

This all assume that oil prices do not collapse, which appears they already have and the collapse will temper for a few months, and then continue. Putin has this one window after the fall rains and before the spring rains.

On a separate note: Did you read how the governor appointed by Piotr Parasheko (the governor's name escapes me at the moment) stating emphatically that the Russian Army doesn't fight in the winter?

Must be Harvard edumacated, I s'pect.
20140919 08:06 Dale Poldar posted this; "The Icelandic eruption in 1815 led to the Year without summer in 1816 for Europe, Asia and North America…some of the coldest winters ever that year. Massachusetts recorded a hard freeze at least 1 night every month of the year….and there was snow in NY state in August".
20140919 05:20 trailing wife Peacenik, not peacemaker.
20140919 00:29 badanov Obama won't 0rder "b00ts on the gr0und". He believes his own bullsh*t and to that end will not do anything to mess up his image as peacemaker/peacenik/whatever.

There's no problem for the military. They will go through the motions, and so will Obama. It's not a deadly dance for them, nor for him. Just order war at 20,000 feet and when the Islamic Krazees act in any way in line with his beliefs, he will declare victory, high five Reggie and head for the links.
20140919 00:09 Pappy wretchard:

The Enemy, unlike the military, are under no obligation to fulfill Obama’s wishes. ISIS insolence may cause the president to revisit his command decision before the end. But it puts the armed forces in an age old bind. What should they do when ordered to act against their better judgment? For most of recorded military history subordinates have struggled with this exact situation; serving under commanders whom they were bound to obey yet sworn to serve. There is a very subtle difference between the two and it is an able commander indeed who can do both.

The US military cannot of course disobey president Obama, however foolish his instructions might be. But like many soldiers through history, they can anticipate; they prepare for situations their commander might not have considered; namely, what if it all goes wrong? For in many cases the problem is how to give a commander in chief what he would probably like, whatever he deserves.

President Obama’s plan to fight ISIS may work. But most probably it will not. In the event that his strategy collapses, someone has to be ready to save his bacon. At least they should have a plan he brilliantly thought of but only saw for the first time ready for his signature.
20140918 23:04 badanov 3dc: Beats he hell out of downloading a new version of flash for Firefox in Linux
20140918 21:07 3dc Google chrome insists on its own wrapper for flash called Pepper. For debian linux Wheezy release their lastest and greatest uses a lib-c that doesn't yet exist in Wheezy. That's the one library you shouldn't change on a linux release as every program uses it. They broke it good. Careless labor?
20140918 20:18 Dale Gimme some of dat Beatnik times also. I'm hip baby.

http://youtu.be/Ld6fAO4idaI
20140918 16:36 badanov Some good old fashi0ned hippie music, Collective Soul:

20140918 15:06 Thing From Snowy Mountain The Communist Insurgency was mainly concentrated in the Chinese minority and antagonistic to the Malay majority population of the area; it was kinda-sorta an ethnic conflict disguised as a communist insurgency. Its main purpose may not have been to win but to drain resources.
20140918 14:36 Deacon Blues One faction of Occupy Wall Street is suing anotherfor control of the Twitter account and 500 grand. Am I bad for giggling uncontrollably?
20140918 10:30 Thing From Snowy Mountain The Brits in Malaysia. A major aspect was the Briggs Plan.

The Chinese Communists, well, everywhere. The North Vietnamese in South Vietnam. The Vietnamese in Cambodia, more or less. Burma in the Shan States. Pakistan in Balochistan.

Indonesia is only NOT in East Timor because of Australia.

Finally, Fujimori in Peru more or less eviscerated the Shining Path for a generation before the People decided it wasn't important.
20140918 10:08 OldSpook iPad ate my post while editing it. It got rejected by the filter, and the browser planked the text box on reload

Suffice to say it explains my thoughts as to why I don't beleive the Brits Malay experience is applicable despite it being my usual reference in how to handle insurgencies. Also Japan and Roman were 2 separate cases. Roman decimation changes people that do it.
20140918 08:11 Deacon Blues Interesting thing about W. T. Sherman. He said that if the US had lost the war he probably would have been tried for war crimes. He tried to do a lot for the South after the war but was stymied by the Radical Republicans. At the Battle of Fallen Timbers after Shiloh Nathan B. Forrest was so close to Sherman he would have killed him but Forrest's pistol was empty. Forrest always lamented about not having one more round.
20140918 00:10 abu do you love SteveS: Last time around the "unidentified planes" turned out to be Egypt and the UAE.
20140917 23:56 SteveS Two reports in today's 'Burg about air strikes in Libya involving "unidentified planes". Could these be forces contracted for by the mythical Minderbender Enterprises?
"Free Markets - making war better. For everyone"
20140917 22:18 Pappy The last people to do that effectively were the Romans

The Brits in Malaysia. A major aspect was the Briggs Plan.
20140917 21:48 Thing From Snowy Mountain I'm not a Rand Paul isolationist but this leaves me noone to vote for.

Gorramdamnit.
20140917 21:47 Thing From Snowy Mountain It looks like the Idiots in Regress gave Big Idiot what he wanted re: "moderate Syrian rebels." I suspect Qatar is happy, but I'm not.
20140917 16:40 3dc TW - to me it looks more Grendel brood mothers and the brood.
Perhaps Beowulf is what's needed.
20140917 13:44 trailing wife Thank you, OldSpook. I've been pondering Gen. Sherman a lot recently, and that within ISIS territory -- and Boko Haram as well -- there aren't that many true civilians... at least not the kind that are innocents. There are the jihadi fighters and their leaders, the former Baathists who think they're using ISIS to accomplish the reconquest of Iraq, the Sunnis happy to take advantage of the situation (fellow travellers), and the slaves. Were I a slave, I would happily trade my continued existence for the destruction of the Caliphate, that others would not have to become slaves... and the rest deserve whatever happens to them. Given that the education system to turn children into little jihadis and jihadi baby makers, even the children need to be freed.

Do you think that winning WWII as we did changed the character of the U.S.? Would not losing the war have changed us as well, and considerably for the worse, independent of what losing to the Nazis would have done? It seems to me that winning that war did us less harm than the subsequent Cold War did, but quite probably I'm not qualified to judge such things.
20140917 12:13 3dc SWJ is reporting that Obama is meeting with Austin today on ISIS strategy. No explanation who Austin is (Austin Bay?)
20140917 12:10 3dc http://s1212.photobucket.com/user/friendly222/media/Dragon-CST100OK_zps10d72969.jpg.html
20140917 11:53 49 Pan Naw Skid, Your good, I'm just numb...
20140917 11:43 Thing From Snowy Mountain Aah, back on my KeyBrain.
20140917 09:57 tfsfone Bad, Then he figures he doesn't have to be responsible for anything anymore, ya think?
20140917 09:53 OldSpook TW the fundamental truth is that the only way to defeat such an insurgency quickly is to be more bloody than they are - literally decimate the populations in which they hide, and if they continue to resist, introduce them to the fate of Carthage.

The last people to do that effectively were the Romans, which is why they were dominant for many centuries, and why they died off when they were no longer willing to shed blood like that. And shedding blood like that changes the character of a person, and IMHO a nation/civilization as well.

Another alternative is to fight the long war.

Victory requires that the vanquished pay a price that cannot be sustained either over the short term (decimation and death) or long term (economic devastation and blockade, starvation, denial of aid, medical economic aid, inflicting misery upon misery while they still resist and support those who resist). And for the victory and peace to be long-term, its the culture that needs to be not just defeated but shattered and discredited. c.f. Japan & Germany WW2.

If we truly want to win this, then our target must be (militant) Islam - it must be discredited, shattered and ground down to the point that it is an embarrassment to be associated with it like Nazism is today. Perhaps a good model is the reformation of the Imperial Japan belief system, which was shattered but allowed to exist only as a neutered version of itself. But that still presupposes a shattering and defeat of Wahabbi/Salafist/Sunni and Militant Shia Islam.

Fundamental to all approaches is to recognize that this is an ENEMY, and that they must be killed, and that their supporters must be made to pay a price for that support.
20140917 09:45 OldSpook Pappy, its true - every now and then I kick the living shit outta me.
20140917 00:45 badanov Barky ain't trying to win. He's trying to get through to January
20140916 23:52 trailing wife Is this in line with what you were thinking about ISIS in Iraq, Pappy?

Scales retired as Commandant of the Army War College, where he was responsible for training the future military leadership in the art of war, so he can be expected to know what he is talking about when evaluating military strategies. His commentary in the Wall Street Journal on the commonalities between the strategies of ISIS and those of Mao Tse-tung and Ho Chi Minh (and the Western responses to same) ought to be required reading for President Obama and Valerie Jarrett. In essence, Obama cannot win with the strategy he is employing:

ISIS is the latest example of a behavior in wars against Western powers that has proven remarkably consistent regardless of region, intensity or level of conflict. From Mao in Korea to Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam to Saddam Hussein and now Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Iraq, all act in fundamentally the same predictable manner.

The strategic ambitions of all our enemies have been the same. They have sought to exclude the West from interfering in their regional ambitions and have aimed to confront Western militaries below the nuclear threshold. (snip)

ISIS and other terrorists know that Western militaries fight short wars well and long wars poorly. Thus they employ a patient method of fighting that engages only when the odds are in their favor. When it goes badly, they look to any well-meaning international body to interfere long enough to regenerate their forces and return to the fight.

Seventy years of experience has taught them the folly of fighting using Western ways. Instead, they have adapted a way of war that avoids the killing effects of Western technology and firepower. They "spot" us control of the air, sea and space. They disperse, hide, dig in and go to ground. They seek shelter among the innocents and amplify any Western transgression with cameras thrust into the dead faces of women and children.

They fight with secondhand technology that's good enough. The Chinese and North Vietnamese did most of their killing with mortars and automatic rifles. Hezbollah and Hamas, in various clashes with Israel, have knocked out Israeli tanks with simple handheld anti-tank missiles. Command and control is by cell phone and courier. Americans died by the hundreds in Iraq and Afghanistan from the crude technology of shells and explosives buried along roads and trails.

A worrisome survey of contemporary history reveals that the enemy's strategies and tactics are both consistent and effective—and getting better. It will take more than a few bloody beheadings before we see American "boots on the ground" again. Secretary of State John Kerry said Wednesday that no U.S. combat troops would be deployed to Iraq "unless, obviously, something very, very dramatic changes." ISIS has already begun to disperse and dig in to obviate the effects of airstrikes. They will continue to brutalize the region and eventually threaten the American homeland. And, as always, ultimately we will confront them.
20140916 23:15 Pappy

Just... because.
20140916 22:46 Skidmark Sorry. Rusty shovel.
My digs used to be sharper.
20140916 16:26 49 Pan Not too sure what I will do. And you know I was never a fobbit!
20140916 16:20 3dc 4 billion for boeing 2.4 billion for spacex nothing for SNC.

Looks like Boeing bought Boden
20140916 16:11 swksvolFF Sorry about your buddy, Deacon.
20140916 14:57 3dc interesting: http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/03/09/florida-makes-off-grid-living-illegal-mandates-all-homes-must-be-connected-to-an-electricity-grid/
20140916 14:30 Bright Pebbles
20140916 13:13 Deacon Blues The only disagreement I have with that is Religion does extend the magical thinking. Now it's God's Will when bad stuff happens.
20140916 09:28 Thing From Snowy Mountain It was from a commentor using the nick 'Cato.'
20140915 22:21 3dc TFSM - nice!
20140915 21:22 Thing From Snowy Mountain From the comments section of AoSHQ:
122 The Left's problems go back to some of Jung's work, which I believe may have been mentioned by Ace or one of the cob-loggers a few months ago. Mankind is prone to magical thinking, and it exists in every culture. It's the whole bit about how primitive people tend to think that sorcerers and magic are responsible for every bad thing that happens.

Religion builds a box around that magical thinking, and restrains it to the theological sphere. Diseases, social ills, and disasters no longer have to be the fault of witches, and their causes can be found with investigation. Suddenly people can use their addled grey matter to do more, and do. There's a reason why the foundation of an organized religion is nearly always one of the first thing a civilization does - because people who live in fear of witches and sorcerers don't build civilizations.

The problem starts to happen when, like most of the Left, you decide that all of religion is magical thinking, and by quitting it, you're freeing yourself from it. Not really, what just happens is one of two things. The first is substitution, where you merely replace God with the next biggest thing - usually the government. They believe that the government can solve any problem, regardless of historical evidence to the contrary, and if it can't, it's the fault of witches - I mean Republicans.

The second thing that may happen is that the magical thinking is completely let out of the bottle, and begins to run rampant all over everything. I probably don't really have to provide a lot of examples of that, but just look at the people who still think that diplomacy can deal with ISIS, or can find crypto-racism behind a simple hello.
20140915 09:33 Bright Pebbles Badanov,
I thought they were trying "No War (in exchange) for Oil"?
20140915 00:29 badanov I remember every nation whose hand was in the cookie jar being against the liberation of Iraq.
20140915 00:26 Skidmark Pan, when this kicks off you going back to be a fobbit? Has Joe got anyhing in the Phil?
20140915 00:23 Skidmark Sorry about Dillon, Deacon.
I just buried a 15 year old retriever.
Guaranteed tomake you melancoly.
20140914 22:39 Pappy Ed Driscoll:

"Unlike Mr. Bush in the Iraq war, Mr. Obama has sought to surround the United States with partners. Earlier on Wednesday, he called King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to enlist his support for the plan to step up training of the Syrian rebels." —Mark Landler, the New York Times, September 10th, 2014.

Really? That’s not how I remember history:

"From the start of its confrontation with Iraq, the Bush administration has tried to create the impression that its drive to topple Saddam has broad international support. Having allies–even some who do little more than lend their names to the war–is apparently meant to undercut widespread criticism that the world’s sole superpower is acting unilaterally. According to the Bush administration and press reports, they are: Afghanistan, Albania, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, Palau, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Singapore, Slovakia, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Uganda, and Uzbekistan.

"Noticeably absent are major powers–France, for example–that were members of the coalition that overturned Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait in 1991. Officials in some of the countries have distanced themselves from participating in the war. For example, the Czech president, Vaclav Klaus, has sharply criticized the attacks on Iraq, and the government of the Netherlands has assured its citizens that Dutch forces won’t enter combat.

"Other countries have not been named publicly but are likely members of the coalition. They include Israel, as well as several Arab states that are providing bases or other assistance to the war: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt." — The New York Times, March 28th 2003
20140914 20:53 badanov My condolences, DB.
20140914 20:53 badanov Leaders of Donetsk and Lugansk are repudiating the ceasefire in southeastern Ukraina because they say they were not part of the final agreement.
20140914 20:50 tfsm phone Sorry to hear about Dillon, Deacon.
20140914 20:20 Dale Greatest fear among people is not being able to breathe. Constantly day after day always difficult. You just wear out. Losing weight also. Tough decision but I'm with you on that call.

Couldn't find the one where Hardy comes back as a mule and Laurel as himself, "another fine mess you've gotten me into". Now there is a word that has interesting results "mule" drugs and such.
20140914 17:33 Pappy Condolences, Deacon.
20140914 17:17 trailing wife My sympathies, dear Deacon Blues. He was a good horse.
20140914 16:40 Deacon Blues I lost my horse Dillon yesterday. He contracted COPD several years ago and started loosing weight this past Spring. He was down yesterday but I managed to get him up and get him to the Vet. There was nothing they could do for him so I decided to have him put down. He would not have lasted much longer as it was so it was best. I'm still bummed.
20140914 15:50 Mike N. If ISIS manages to pull significant numbers of US/UK into action, Russia gets a pretty good chance at successfully grabbing some eastern European turf.
20140914 14:14 3dc Maybe as kitchen workers and medics
20140914 14:13 3dc I think ISIS really needs some fresh volunteers from Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.
20140914 13:57 Pappy Possible, Snowy. Al Nusra reportedly was guarding Syrian regime-controlled oil fields some months back.

Alliances in that part of the world tend to be liquid. Used to be that way in Europe with mercenary outfits in the 13-14th century as well.
20140914 10:29 tfsfone Can I add a contact to this done without having it sync to googl?
Apparently not

20140914 10:29 tfsfone Can I add a contact to this done without having it sync to googl?
Apparently not

20140914 09:52 tfsfone Ignore the showy stuff... In bulk, ISIS spends most of its efforts fighting Syrian rebel groups, Iraqi sunni army units and Kurds that Maliki denied supplies to for the last three years.
20140914 09:36 tfsm phone Pans scenario fits in with the idea that ISIS really works for Assad. It fits the traditional soviet pattern of backing multiple revolutionary fronts some of whom are ostensibly fighting them. I can't really go into details on the fine...
20140914 01:07 Pappy It's possible, bad. Though I thought the storage areas were rumored to be farther south. I also thought the Russians would have taken the worst of the stuff with them.

Al Nusra's actions are interesting. I half-wonder if it's more a plan to put pressure on Hesb'allah than Israel. But yes, Israel will likely have to do something. G(r)om's blatherings aside, having UN observers on the heights was a benefit.

20140914 00:48 49 Pan He has destroyed our economy. He has turned our government into turmoil and our legal system into a joke. The last step in the Manchurian candidates world would be a decisive defeat on the battlefield. Draw us in, hobble us with Chem, then attack Israel. Fighting Iraq was pretty conventional, AQ in Afghanistan and the Taliban are still within the our capabilities, even with the limited ROE. This will be different.

With all of my soul I hope I'm wrong and OS is correct.
20140914 00:26 trailing wife Pappy, this may be of interest. Al Nusra, et al seem to be concentrating on the area around the border crossing into Israel. At some point Israel will have to do something about that, surely.